THE WAR IS OVER: HAMAS REAPS The FRUITS Of OCTOBER 7

After Israel’s protracted genocide in Gaza, the ceasefire delivers a devastating victory for the Palestinian resistance and a smug defeat for Israelis, who were forced to cough up unprecedented concessions, leaving Hamas whole and the strip unoccupied.

After 15 months of a brutal and relentless genocide that took the lives of over 50,000 Palestinians, a Gaza ceasefire has finally been reached. The truce deal marks a devastating victory for the Palestinian resistance, achieved at a staggering human cost, and a political loss for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the occupation state.

Unless Netanyahu pulls an unexpected move, which seems improbable for various reasons – most of them tied to demands from the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump – it is clear to all involved in Doha, Cairo, Istanbul, and Washington that the agreement to halt the Gaza genocide has been finalized and is now underway.

Sources familiar with the negotiations reveal to The Cradle that the announcement delay on 14 January stemmed from an Israeli “final attempt” to manipulate withdrawal maps. Tel Aviv sought to insert the term “withdrawal from populated areas,” which implied maintaining its forces in “open areas” near civilian zones. 

This effort was thwarted by “decisive American pressure.” On 15 January, further delay arose from disagreements over who would announce the agreement: the Qataris, Americans, Egyptians, or a joint conference.

“Everyone wants to pick the image of achievement, but the balance is weighted in favor of the Qataris,” explains one of the sources. In the end, Qatar announced the ceasefire due to its pivotal position in mediating the deal. A few hours later, US President Joe Biden also announced the ceasefire. 

Two months prior, Qatar temporarily withdrew from mediation to secure a US mandate from the new administration. Washington, recognizing Qatar’s “distinguished relationship” with Hamas, sidelined Cairo and resumed negotiations in Doha instead.

The ceasefire will take effect on Sunday, 19 January, just one day before Donald Trump’s inauguration. This timing is partly attributed to US efforts to shape optics and partly to allow logistical preparations by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip. 

Key details of the agreement

Hamas and Israel have agreed to a phased approach, balancing both their immediate and long-term goals. The deal includes the release of 1,000 Palestinian detainees, including 250 prisoners serving life sentences, women, and minors under 19 years old.

Israel also agreed to withdraw from key areas of the strip, notably the Netzarim and Philadelphi axes, facilitating the return of displaced Gazans to the north without preconditions.

A significant element of the agreement was Hamas releasing 33 or 34 Israeli prisoners still held in Gaza, out of a total of 98, representing a third of the remaining captives. Notably, this was achieved without providing Tel Aviv with prior disclosure of the hostages’ condition, whether alive or deceased.

For the first time, Israel publicly revealed the number of Gazan prisoners: 3,436, with 529 denied legal counsel – a mix of fighters and civilians, debunking the Israeli narrative throughout the war to have captured thousands of fighters.

Despite Israeli attempts to prioritize certain Shin Bet and Unit 8200 operatives in initial prisoner swaps, the agreed process ensures transparency. Prisoner release protocols, including pledges and documentation, began days prior, the sources inform The Cradle

The withdrawal adheres to pre-7 October 2023 borders, averting Israeli attempts to establish buffer zones and achieve territorial encroachment – a significant victory for the Palestinian resistance.

Hamas also secured commitments for reconstruction, including hospital rehabilitation, field medical teams, and unrestricted humanitarian aid.

This includes the re-opening of the destroyed Rafah crossing with Egypt, although Egyptian sources tell The Cradle it will likely be opened in March, while work is already underway to repair the Egyptian side. Qatar will sponsor 600 daily aid trucks, 200,000 tents, and 60,000 caravans.

Moreover, Israel must limit air operations over Gaza to 8 to 10 hours daily in order to facilitate Palestinian search-and-rescue efforts.

Throughout the six-week implementation, Hamas will gradually release Israeli prisoners – three to four prisoners per week – an average of 19 in the first five weeks – and the remaining 14 or so at the end of the first phase, retaining 65 individuals as leverage for subsequent phases.

The details of those phases will be negotiated later, provided that the Americans uphold their guarantee to prevent the return of war. 

The first troop withdrawal phase, allowing displaced Palestinians to return to the north, from Al-Rashid al-Bahari Street to the west, begins on the seventh day of the ceasefire. By the 22nd day, Israel will fully withdraw, restoring freedom of movement for all Palestinians.

Netanyahu’s bitter pill 

Over 15 months of total war, Netanyahu has faced numerous internal and external hurdles to reach this agreement. In the interim, the Israeli narrative of “absolute victory” has unraveled.

Widely-touted promised gains, such as retaining the strategic Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors, have been abandoned, leaving Netanyahu and his extremist governing coalition grappling with a public relations crisis.

The liberation of Palestinian prisoners and the reversal of territorial ambitions evoke memories of the 2011 exchange that freed 1,027 Palestinians for Gilad Shalit – a painful reminder for Israelis.

Israeli media’s reactions reflect this bitterness. “The pressure Trump is exerting right now is not the kind that Israel expected from him,” lamented the rightwing commentator Jacob Bardugo on Channel 14 on Monday. The network’s journalist Ariel Segal, close to Netanyahu, remarked, “It could be that we (Israel) are the first to pay the price of Trump’s election.”

Meanwhile, a journalist ally of extremist Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir concedes that “Trump increased the pressure on Hamas to the point that Israel broke.”

To compensate, there are reports of an “American compensation package” offering Netanyahu political cover for this domestic defeat. It includes lifting sanctions on extremist settlers, shielding Israeli leaders from international legal action, and permitting major West Bank settlement expansions.

Yet, compared to Tel Aviv’s far-reaching initial ambitions, such as annexing the West Bank or attacking Iran, these concessions appear diluted.

The late, martyred Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who spearheaded the resistance’s Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, emerges as a key figure in the context of a prison swap. According to Hamas sources, the resistance negotiated the ceasefire on Sinwar’s stringent terms, and in death, he achieved his goals.

This will further glorify the man whose fight to the bitter end was captured in emotive images during his direct, defiant confrontation with the occupation forces. 

His soldiers, unaware of his identity until after his martyrdom, viewed him as a symbol of resistance. Today, Israel faces the prospect of releasing hundreds of prisoners with life sentences and will be bitterly weighing the likelihood of future ‘Sinwars’ among them.

For Israel, prisoners sentenced to life imprisonment are seen as having “blood on their hands,” signifying their perceived threat and resilience as formidable Palestinian figures.

A fragile victory

Despite unparalleled suffering – over 200,000 casualties, mass displacements, and Gaza’s near-total devastation – Palestinians are finding solace in halting the war and securing key concessions. The resistance’s steadfastness and Qatar’s deft diplomacy reshaped an agreement that, while imperfect, forestalls further bloodshed and displaces Israeli ambitions of long-term occupation. 

However, the cessation remains precarious, hinging only on American guarantees and mutual adherence to terms. For Gaza’s people, scarred by war yet defiant, the deal symbolizes not just survival but a step toward reclaiming their dignity amid a continuing struggle.

When viewed alongside the key components of this agreement and juxtaposed with Israel’s objectives – the displacement of Gazans, the exile of resistance leaders, and the forcible retention of prisoners – the outcome marks a notable “achievement.”

This is particularly evident after over a year of relentless warfare, during which the occupation state seemed intent on perpetuating its presence in Gaza indefinitely.

What complicates the narrative is the perception that the cessation of hostilities was largely driven by a “quasi-personal” decision by Donald Trump, who indirectly attacked Netanyahu during the process. 

Yet, this outcome would not have been possible without the unwavering determination of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza. Their recent intensifying operations, especially on the front lines near Beit Hanoun, which exacted heavy death tolls on Israeli forces, played a crucial role in addition to the regional fronts opened by Hamas’s allies in the Axis of Resistance.

Nevertheless, these efforts alone did not directly prompt the war’s end. Gazans have endured horrors they liken to “doomsday scenes.” The toll includes 17,000 orphans and countless families erased from the civil registry. 

On 16 January, one day after the announcement came, Netanyahu attempted to delay the approval of the ceasefire deal, blaming Hamas for “backtracking.” However, Hamas official Izzat al-Rishq stated the group remains “committed” to the ceasefire announced Wednesday.

Israeli media attributed the delay to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s threats to leave the government in protest.

The people of Gaza are choosing to celebrate the agreement and its implications. Their joy and relief are visible not only in the diaspora and the West Bank but also in the streets of Gaza and among the makeshift tents they now call home, even before the agreement’s official declaration.

 

 

By The Cradle’s Palestine Correspondent

Published by The Cradle

 

 

Republished by The 21st Century

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of 21cir.com

 

 

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