The Middle Kingdom, the Coming World Disorder and A Much Different FUTURE

SHANGHAI — Many analysts argue that China has stumbled recently in the South China Sea and East China Sea in its aggressive territorial disputes with its neighbors, alienating so many of them that it is now viewed as a threat by the region. This in turn has resulted in America’s much-touted “pivot” (now renamed “rebalance”) to the Asia-Pacific. Such judgment is misplaced. On the contrary, history will probably prove that China has dealt with these situations with agility unmatched by the great powers of our time. China’s strategic objective in the region is to change the status quo — the establishment of which it did not have enough power to participate in or influence — to its advantage without resulting in actual military conflicts. In both the South China Sea against several Southeast Asian nations — most notably the Philippines, and in the East China Sea against Japan — China has accomplished that goal. Its naval presence near Huangyan Island, the now frequent visits by Chinese vessels to the areas of Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands, the growing international focus on the disputes and the recently established Air Defense Identification Zone attest to that achievement.

The Year of Iran: Tehran’s Challenge to American Hegemony in 2014

This strategy aims to replace American hegemony, regionally and globally, with a more multi-polar distribution of power and influence. The United States is not the first imperial power in decline whose foreign policy debate has…

Fanning Fires of Chaos in Ukraine: What is Real Price Starting Another Cold War?

In the late 1980s, the leaders of the west promised Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev that they would not expand eastward if the Soviet Union pulled out of Eastern Europe and ended the Cold War. That promise was not kept. A triumphal West stuck it to the Soviet Union’s greatly weakened Russian successor, by incorporating the former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO and the EU. But that was not enough to sate the lust of the neo-liberal triumphalists in search of a new imperium. Their next move tried to incorporate the Caucasus country of Georgia — a country more a part of Central Asia than of Europe — into the West’s sphere of influence. That turned out to be a bridge too far; the Russians intervened militarily to put a stop to the lunacy. But events in the Ukraine suggest that stop may have been viewed as a temporary speed bump on the pathway to rolling back Russia’s geography to the years of Ivan the Terrible.