Petro Poroshenko never stops calling himself a president of peace since the day he took office. During his tenure fierce fighting took place with the death toll measured in thousands, mainly civilians. In August-September 2014 and February 2015 the Ukrainian military suffered a crushing defeat. But it has failed to cool down the fervor of war mongers.
Today they are shelling the urban areas of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s republics (Novorossia) and prepare armor units for offensive. Poroshenko is not the only who decides if a cleansing operation should launched.
Neither he, nor Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, nor all those holding top positions in the contemporary Ukraine have enough authority to take decisions. Ukraine is governed from outside and its parliament votes upon the instructions from Washington.
The situation in the battle area is exacerbated any time the US Vice – President or a State Department official visits the country. Illegal neo-Nazi armed formations brought the new Ukrainian rulers to power. They threaten to overthrow the government in case hostilities stop in the Donbass.
The volunteer battalions of punishers formed by members of neo-Nazi organizations are the most combat capable units. They are better equipped than others and have honed their interaction skills.
They can stage a coup. Poroshenko and his inner circle understand it well. There is hardly anything they can do about it as every third serviceman in the battle areas near Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol and Gorlovka belongs to volunteer formations.
The government cannot disband them as it would greatly weaken the combat potential. Moreover, it could provoke clashes between regular military and Pravy Sector formations. The attempts to put the volunteers under the army control have failed.
Formally becoming a component of armed forces, the battalions have preserved their command structures and links to Pravy Sector leadership whose instructions carry more weight than the commands of regular armed forces commanders. The Pravy Sector leader Dmitry Yarosh and his patron Valentyn Nalyvaichenko take instructions from US special services.
The only way to get rid of neo-Nazi militants is to make them suffer defeat from Novorossia’s militia in case the hostilities start again.
Many things tell the Ukraine’s government is preparing to start combat actions soon. It never hid the fact that it needed armistice to regroup and prepare for the next round of fighting.
The information coming from the Donbass areas under the Ukraine’s control tells the forces are getting reinforcements and prepare for an offensive. Artillery shelling is becoming more intense, as well as clashes at the forward edge of battle area. In violation of Minsk accords and the corresponding resolution of the United Nations Security Council.
Ukraine transported heavy weapon systems back to where they had been before. Kiev has refused the proposals put forward by the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics related to the constitutional changes that would guarantee the rights of people in the Donbass. It has confirmed its firm decision to return the Donbass and the Crimea using force.
To limit the volunteer formations’ freedom of action or even neutralize them is not the main mission to accomplish. Washington is pressing Poroshenko and company to get Russia dragged into the conflict and put an end to bickering inside the European Union which is not unanimous on Ukraine.
The US wants the EU to dutifully follow the North Atlantic Alliance. They already discuss the deployment of US intermediate range nuclear missiles to deliver a pre-emptive strike against Russia.
Resorting to provocations is the way to create a pretext for accusations against Russia. For instance, artillery and missile strike to cause civil casualties like it has recently taken place near Mariupol and Volnovaha. They also stage political provocations. The Ukrainian parliament has denounced a number of agreements with Russia.
As a result, the Russian peacekeepers deployed in Transnistria have been blocked. Russian military are forbidden to cross the Ukrainian territory. Now any attempt to rotate troops or even the return of peacekeepers to Russia would be called an invasion of Ukraine.
Just a few days before the denunciation of the agreements Ukraine deployed in the vicinity of Odessa S-300 air defense systems covering the whole air space of Transnistria. Ukrainian forces are concentrated near the border with the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. The largest part of the border on the Ukrainian side stretches along the territory of Odessa region.
Mikhail Saakashvili, former Georgian President, responsible for the Georgian August 2008 attack against Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia, is appointed governor of Odessa region.
Until now they have failed to find a pretext for another provocation. Unlike in South Ossetia (2008) there is no military stand-off at the border. But a pretext could be invented. Saakashvili, a person wanted by Interpol, has rich experience in this particular field.
The US wants to use Russia for the purpose of consolidating US allies in Europe. Any method to reach the goal would do, even a primitive one. Ukrainian commandos could attack an OSCE mission to shift the blame of Russian special operations team.
Russia should be dragged into the war to prevent neo-Nazis toppling the Ukraine’s government. Neo-Nazi organizations have a program which envisions physical extermination of Russians and Russian speakers. The United States needs it to weaken Russia and subjugate Europe. All these actors will go to any length to drag Russia into the conflict.
Alexander DONETSKY | SCF