Let’s summarize the main determinants of political and social developments of the Northern Hemisphere (and beyond) over the last two centuries. In short, national states were built in the 19th and civic states in the 20th century. Political jargon for all socio-political processes has established an original term – the new world order.
If we simply relied on this term, then the main determinant of the “new world order” for the 21st century would be contained in the formula: with democratization into integration until globalization.
It is less important whether the new socio-political processes are scientifically elaborated or are just superficially grasped. What matters is that the speed of these processes is much higher than the highly referenced theorists have predicted. On the world as a global village one can draw today various conclusions. I single out four that may have high importance in considering geopolitical processes.
First, the new technologies have made accessible to almost all humanity the civilisation’s achievements in all areas.
Second, various achievements in the field of democracy are inspiring and intriguing to all, whatever the actual value of the given democracy.
Third, the side effects of globalization expand and network faster than anything else. Typical side effects of globalization are organized crime and corruption.
Fourth, once we had role models that were somewhere in our area or field of vision. Raw models today (positive or negative) are increasingly becoming those at large distances, even though we cannot hear or see them. In detecting processes, this becomes a parameter of strategic importance.
Based on the aforementioned, I post the thesis of the article: “Organized crime and corruption are becoming the top geopolitical factors, and will more often be used as a geopolitical tool.”
2. EVOLUTION OF SOME POLITICAL STRATEGIES AND DOCTRINES
Public policies of states (whatever they may be) in fact, have never been a big problem. The problem is the degree of secrecy in those policies. Experience shows that the secrecy of a country’s policy is easiest to discover through military strategies and military doctrines.
For the simple reason that armies (from a political and sociological aspect) are slow and easily recognizable systems. Let’s recall some basic features of military strategies and doctrines of the leading forces during the period of bloc divisions.
The main characteristic of the military strategies of the United States was contained in the formula: Global power – Global reach. One feature of these strategies (among others) has been to penetrate, in different ways, into the army corps of non-democratic states.
The task was to achieve a strong influence on these armies, and through them to exert influence on political change in these countries. The formula is simple and logical – in non-democratic countries the armies have largest power, and through this power it is possible to change the situation in the country. This formula has been very effective for decades.
The main characteristic of the military doctrines of the former USSR was the arming of friendly countries through aid or arms sales and, along with weapons to export, as much as possible, the ideology. These doctrines have always been resisted by the subjects of international politics, and by organizations and movements that have fought for greater democracy and human rights.
Former KGB was the force that paved the way to the final destination. The disintegration of the USSR, in fact, brought the biggest change that, unfortunately, has not been sufficiently analysed. In fact, hundreds of thousands disciples of robust and brutal KGB remained both stateless and unemployed.
They were prepared to cause trouble of any kind. At the same time, in the Russian Federation, numerous tycoons emerged who had an objective fear of the ruthless KGB. The formula was found. Timid and rich tycoons were connected with the cruel and impoverished KGB operatives.
Thus, the oligarchy was created. Instead of exporting ideology and weapons, they expanded the exports of suspicious and dirty capital. And did not encounter opposition anywhere. Domestic tycoons (especially in transition countries) opened and expanded them the space.
Networks of organized crime and corruption multiplied. Armies (as rigid, and easily recognizable systems) have become a burden to the new authorities of these countries. At first, the armies’ assets were sucked, and then they became insignificant empty shells.
The former ideological and political Russian-Balkan-South American transversal has grown into the organized crime and corruption transversal. It has merged with the link which leads from Afghanistan through Iran to the Balkans and transformed into an Asian-Balkan-South American transversal of organized crime and corruption.
In order for the mafia (as an army of organized crime and corruption) to survive in this area, they have built for themselves a suitable political environment. Dirty and suspicious capital goes agressively to the Western Europe and North America, where it registers itself in various ways, and then returns as “western capital” to the Balkans.
Mostly to the states with a majority Orthodox population. The organized crime and corruption from the aforementioned transversal has developed a very strong lobbying network. This lobbying network currently represents the most dangerous corruptive network on the planet.
It lobbies for the majority of political figures in the Balkans which have evolved from organized crime and corruption. These new politicians very skillfully promote a new political doctrine whose main attribute is loud push for Euro-Atlantic integration, but under which the owners of dirty capital are busy occupying the Balkan economic resources.
During all this time, the US and EU policies have been overstretching themselves trying to reform the military in transitional countries which, in essence, are worthless and of no use. Except for corruption.
It is safe to conclude that the US and the EU policy in the Balkans, in a geopolitical sense, have been outwitted.
3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT
The prophets of globalization who used to say: “Privatize, privatize, privatize”(2) have now recognized to have made mistakes. The world economy is clearly turning towards the religious truth. The sudden rise of management schools and their inter-linking with the large corporations have had the disturbing effect of confusing between management and leadership. Market capitalism from half a century ago was first transformed into a neo-liberal one and is now turning into its antipode.
For centuries, money has been a comparative measure of the value of goods, and today the same has become the most valuable and sought after commodity. This has prompted the development of financial engineering which, in turn, has generated the speculating. Daily turnover in foreign exchange markets in 1973 was 15 billion dollars.
Today it is over 1.5 trillion dollars(3). Banks have for centuries been supporting the economy, while the aforementioned has converted them into the majority stakeholders and monopolists of the economy. In the last forty years, over one billion jobs have been automated or become robotic, and the number of majority shareholders in the economy is steadily decreasing.
This has resulted in an enormous reduction in the number of manufacturing jobs and in the concentration of ownership of capital. Estimates indicate that 47 global corporations own 40% of the global capital, while the majority ownership of this capital belongs to less than 1% of the respective owners.
The alarm is switched on. Corporate gigantism has become a reality, but it ignores the old saying that “the colonies cost more than they are worth.” When banks or corporations are profitable, then most of the belongs to a small number of majority shareholders, and when banks are incuring losses or go bankrupt, the bill paid by all taxpayers.
The current capitalism has moved the capital from production to consumption, which leads to a general impoverishment of the state and population. According to the World Bank’s data, population living on less than a dollar a day for the past twenty years has declined from 1.5 billion to 1.1 billion, but the number of people living on two dollars a day has increased from 1 to 1.6 billion , so their total has increased from 2.5 billion to 2.7 billion. One billion people every night go hungry to sleep(4).
It is a reliable indicator of the trend of impoverishment of the population. By means of various corruptive practices (including lobbying), the corporate capital brings its favorites to high positions of state and political power. Such authorities, as a rule, rather than on national, are more focused on international policy, thus diverting public attention from domestic problems to the international ones.
The trend of automation and robotization of jobs is accelerating, leading to mass unemployment and general discontent of workers. This makes most of the population irresistent to populism. Throughout history, fascism has penetrated the states precisely through populism, and this was always done in the name of freedom and democracy.
All this has turned classic capitalism into a state-criminal capitalism, which has become brutal, vulgar, and therefore unsustainable. This opens the door for some of the totalitarian systems of the 20th century to reappear again somewhere.
Let us accept that all types of freedom (just like democracy) in the classical understanding of these concepts, are a relative proposition. Let us accept that the theories of civilizations are also relative. But any analyzis where in the planet people have the highest standard of living (in all aspects of the term), will indicate that this is Western Europe and North America.
We must accept one more fact. Namely, since globalization has blended the cards of the political game (and is still blending them), it is however evident that these two areas are the most inspiring to the majority of the world’s population.
I will continue to be persistent in explaining that, in planetary relations, organized crime and corruption are becoming the key geopolitical tool. It is ahead of the nuclear one, although the nuclear assets have become a burden for those who have them, and a challenge for those who do not.
Lobbying has become the most dangerous corrupt practice of non-democratic regimes and their exponents. Pressed by competition, the representatives of big business have entered into all this, which directly impacts on the foundations of classical capitalism. The all-embracing privatization in the context of an uncontrolled globalization is a threat to both states and nations.
Non-democratic regimes, organized crime and corruption and big businesses are coming together and are increasingly overtaking geopolitics from the official states, including those of the great powers. Mafia, as the army of organized crime and corruption, will in the future (because of their “business”) be the biggest manufacturer of both wars and terrorism.
It is committed to the political confrontation of the U.S. and the EU. This is becoming more and more apparent. But even if we postpone the final judgment on this, we can already talk about some of paradoxes.
United States of America, as representatives of North American civilization, by most parameters are still the desired and promised land. They are all this to its citizens as well. If one seriously analyzes US foreign policy in more recent history, one can confidently conclude that it was the inspirer and creator of many democratic changes on the planet.
The west-east direction was the barycentric geographic direction of this policy, and its reach was the whole planet. Such policy also had a favorable reflection on the internal politics of the United States. And what did globalization bring to its current policy? Organized crime and corruption, as one of the side effects of globalization, is not bypassing the United States.
On the contrary, from all over the planet it very much impacts on vital national interests of the United States. The speed of change in globalization is such that U.S. foreign policy no longer has enough power and resources to follow the chain of revolutionary processes.
US today is often the scapegoat for many things. Some accuse it (for their own interests) of producing new crises, and others that it does not provide sufficient support to the democratization processes.
For the first time in its history, due to rapid process of globalization, internal U.S. policy has begun to suffer more visibly from the consequences of international processes. For the United States, one can say (in a strategic sense) that it has a democracy, but that it will soon lack important natural resources.
South American civilization was shaped by millennia. It is safe to conclude (strategically assess) that the continent has natural resources, but under-developed democracy. Organized crime and corruption from this area are increasingly transnationally networking the planet.
I have no doubt that, in spite of all difficulties, European Union (along with NATO) is the best product of civilization. If U.S. policy is sometimes accused for having elements of imperialism and hegemony, something similar cannot be said for the EU policy. The EU is doing its best to democratize the old continent, to develop it, to make it safer for people and to integrate it in accordance with best democratic standards.
Despite problems, the results are already there. But, although organized crime and corruption are a common product of non-democratic states and their regimes (where the rule of law and efficiency of institutions have yet to be achieved), we can safely say that no one is more threatened from organized crime and corruption than the EU.
European politicians have not realized that the organized crime and corruption (coupled with big capital) have become the top geopolitical tool, that even small and undemocratic countries dispose of such tool, and that some non-European political circles use the same tool for geopolitical purposes.
The “business” interest of these circles will prompt these circles to produce in the future terrorism and wars, which is a first-class menace for the EU. In a strategic sense, for the EU one can say that, generally speaking, it has a democracy but that in the future it will be lacking resources..
For Russia, one can say that its territory never had a democracy beffiting the humans. Her policy was equally wicked for their own people, just as it was for others outside its territory.
It is has not been established yet whether there were more human casualties in all Russian state led wars put together or through historical processes of disciplining its own people. I do not exclude the possibility that the highest price for globalisation might be paid by the citizens of Russia.
When these (traditionally closed) systems begin to open, this usually happens through civil wars. And that, of the most brutal type. I do not exclude that Russia could face this soon. Russia has a great scarcity of democracy, but its resources are abundant. For the ruling power (in transitional societies), this abundance of resources in the initial period may have a beneficial effect.
Until the moment when the poor and disenfranchised begin to notice the impact of organized crime and corruption, and all kinds of injustice. The coping with that reality is always revolutionary.
Very rare are areas which have so much diversity and controversies as is the case with the Eastern Hemisphere. Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are, by level of development and democracy, the desired lands for many. But the Eastern Hemisphere, as a whole, can be assessed as a space with abundant natural resources, but lacking democracy.
Indochinese space has always progressed through history in a specific evolutionary way. This will be the case in the near future, as well.
Due to its rich natural resources and the scarcity of democracy, the African continent will undergo globalization through chain revolutions. And organized crime and corruption in the African region will be a geopolitical factor and geopolitical tool which will be used to resolve many things.
In a strategic sense, the Arctic and Antarctica (due to global warming) will become very important areas.
5. POSSIBLE RECOMMENDATIONS
From the above, it can be concluded that the relations and geopolitical changes on the planet in this century (and probably longer) will depend on the balance of power in the triangle: democracy, resources and organized crime and corruption. The lack of only one of the first two of these, or the excess of the third, can destroy any country and any people, I am convinced.
In order to prevent a global threat, it is necessary to start redefining the (now current) political theories of international relations. Accordingly, it is evident that we should redefine the theory of geopolitics.
Regional inter-linkages, with maximum preservation of the achievements of civilization, will no longer be just a condition for regional development, but will be a condition for survival of both peoples and states of the region. And every continent individually will be only one (not so large) region.
It is of strategic importance to have succesful regional association of North American democracy and Latin American resources. By joint struggle against organized crime and corruption it is necessary to preserve at all cost the Euro-Atlantic partnership. Staying out of this formula, not only will slow down development, but can potentially endanger (in civilizational, political, social and economic sense) all three continents.
Of a millennium importance for development of humanity would be regional association of Europe and Russia. Up to Vladivostok. The integration of western democracies (while preserving Euro-Atlantic Partnership) and Russia’s resources, coupled with a resolute fight against organized crime and corruption, would have a gigantic significance. And that, for the whole globe. I have no dilemma that the persistence on formulae outside this one would completely undermine Europe and Russia, and would significantly slow down the rest of the planet.
Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand have all what is necessary to integrate the Eastern Hemisphere on the basis of a similar formula.
All this can be inspiring for a specific (but significantly calmer) civilizational transition of the indochinese area.
It is inevitable that the African space will have a multi-layered chain of revolutionary transitions. But that will not endanger the mankind, unlike all of the afore-mentioned, which can do that.
By preserving state sovereignities, sufficient statism and national specificities, and through creation of regional associations (in the previously explained method), preconditions would be established for the mastering of Arctic and Antarctic area as a common good. Otherwise, the global warming (as a future geopolitical factor) could lead to cataclysmic changes for humanity. On which, any (now valid) policy or geopolitics, would have no effect.
6. YUGO REGION IN THE GLOBALISM TURMOIL
There is no more doubt that the globalization and integration are the essential features of social and political processes of the 21st century. Many scholars and analysts have claimed, or still claim, that this will remain the core characteristic of this century. I dare say that this form of globalization and integration will be finalised by the end of the second decade of this century.
Integrations of all good things are carried out in accordance with accepted norms and standards, and these require and actually absorb significant time. Organized crime and corruption use this time interval as a strategic advantage.
Undemocratic and autocratic regimes of small states know that, through transnational organized crime, their countries can become a geopolitical factor. They are not much concerned about the fact that this might last only for a limited time, after which a high price might be paid. For them, the most important thing is to preserve the power and to feel powerful, even at the risk that this will not last very long.
The above mentioned leads to the emergence of new revolutionary processes. How to recognize the same? When somewhere, instead of institutions, power is concentrated in an individual, a particular clan or family, it is inevitable that we can expect the overthrow. And it will happen very quickly and without the classic forewarnings. And each overthrow is always undetaken by means of revolutionary methods.
It is often said that organized crime and corruption can last only as long as it is enough for the government policy to say “STOP”. Organised crime has solved this problem in its favor, or is on the way to solve it, and this in two ways.
Mafia, as an operational army of the organized crime, tends to place under its influence a large number of politicians prior to their coming to power. They certainly affect the composition of the political scene in the Western Balkans, primarily in the states of the ex-Yu area.
This is the first way of addresing their problem. Another way is the most dangerous, and is reflected in the fact that mafia knows that it must not leave the political space to national authorities to say “STOP” to corruption and organized crime.
So mafia can very skillfully stun the state with the most serious political problem for any government, which is terrorism.
The common perception is that terrorism is the punishment of a different political opinion. It is necessary to redefine this. In addition to the traditional concept of terrorism, in the future it will primarily be in the service of the organized crime. When the government tames organized crime, terrorism is stripped down and is easier to fight.
And when terrorism is wrapped in the organized crime, the occurrence of the same confuses the government, frightens the people, and the outcome is uncertain. One should not forget that war is the best environment for corruption and organized crime.
Because of this fact, over here one must be vigilant. We, in the Western Balkans, for decades have been a bad example. It is true that we had several hegemonistic projects on a national basis, as well as promoters of such ideas. It is true that the holders of these ideas have recruited their mafia to help realize these ideas.
It is true that the ex-Yu area produced several wars. It is also true that the idea of large national projects and their agents have already left the political and social scene of the Western Balkans.
But it is also true that all their mafia have survived. Moreover, they have developed strong linkages, and are expanding their activities in the transnational arena.
Let’s analyze yet another dimension of this problem. I believe we shall all agree that organized crime and mafia profited most in the period when Serbs and Serbia on one side, and Croats and Croatia on the other, argued to the highest degree of human outrage. Since cooperation and friendship between Serbia and Croatia have been re-established, nervousness, and even panic started to reign in the mafia ranks.
Cooperation between Croatia and Serbia in the fight against organized crime and corruption is causing anxiety in some high political circles of their neighboring countries.
To offset this and re-stablish their advantage, mafia would find it very profitable to produce or stir in Serbia a political problem. By an act of terrorism, for example. And why would they do this? Simply put, they know that Serbia, for decades, has not adequately addressed political problems.
And why is Serbia not coping well? Because, for centuries Serbia has a systemic state-political failure, which is reflected in the fact that the public consciousness in Serbia has always preferred and still prefers the civilization to which it geographically belongs – Europe, while the state-political leadership has directed the same, as a rule, in the opposite, ie. the eastern direction.
Asian-Balkan-South American transversal of organized crime can still overheat the Western Balkans. And other areas, as well.
7. YUGO REGION AS PART OF A EUROPEAN SOLUTION
By term Yugo region I comprise the state-political space of seven states formed from the former SFRY.
I know of no space on the planet which in its history has had so many peace negotiations, peace conferences and peace treaties as is the case with the Balkans. After all of them, has secure peace prevailed in the Western Balkans? Not at all.
Is this problem a geopolitical story? Could be. Balkans is an area where geopolitical lines are crossed. Is this problem a religious story? Could be. In the Balkans, all three great religions are mixed up. Could this problem be a nationalistic story? Could be. Because of mutual perpetual warfare, the nations in the Western Balkans (by their own conviction) have not shaped up in a civilized manner.
What is the longest period in recent history in which there was no inter-conflicts in the Western Balkans? This is the period during the existence of post Second World War Yugoslavia until 1991.
It is a real fortune that Slovenes have a state and that they have built the same as an example to others. But, in Slovenia the resistance to the above transversal is lessening. In Slovenia, there are feelings towards the Yugo region, but also a strong interest for connecting with that area.
Few people wanted their own state as did Croats. Historically and politicaly, they deserve it. I have no doubt that it will be more of a civic state, and that all what is needed in the national sense will be preserved. In Croatia, there is not enough resistance to the above transversal. Historical, cultural, religious, ethnic, customary, and many other economic links of Croats and Croatia with the Yugo region have never, nor will ever be broken.
Serbs and Serbia in their history have been very clear and very strict as to what they do not want and what is not accepted. From the official policy of Serbs and Serbia one could hardly guess what they want and what they are fighting for. Such a policy has for centuries led Serbs and Serbia into quarrels with others.
In the Balkan wars in the 20th century, only Serbs and Serbia participated in all of them. The longest period of Serbian peace was the one during the rule of Josip Broz Tito, vis a vis whom many Serbs still express animosity.
Although not by the merit of Serbian state policy, it is good that Serbia finally has its state borders, but it is not good that the current government still does not accept this reality. The strategic formula for survival of Serbs and Serbia is the building of friendships with neighbors, primarily with Croats and Albanians.
In recent history of relations between Serbs and Albanians, so far everything was tried and nothing has brought a favorable result. Friendship has never been tried. It is worth trying. Serbia is in a high risk of the previously mentioned transversal. Feelings toward the Yugo region are largely determined by the political aspiration of unifying the ethnic Serbs.
Few people throughout their history have suffered so much to preserve their national and state identity, as is the case with the Macedonians. Historical injustice has been corrected. They have a state, but it can be affected by the transversal. In Macedonia, they still have strong feelings for the Yugo region.
The decades-long injustice has been corrected, and the Montenegrins, successfully and without war, have restored the civic state of Montenegro. There is an ever present burden that it was in Montenegro, on the 20th August 1988, that the violent destruction of Yugoslavia has began through the so-called anti-bureaucratic revolution, an essentially nationalistic movement,. The added burden is that this same political elite is in power for so long.
The anatomy of the so-called small corruption is the modus vivendi of the Montenegrin society, while high level corruption is the genezis of the new Montenegrin elite. This has become the biggest security risk for Montenegro(5).
No country in the Western Balkans is as endangered by the afore mentioned transversal as is Montenegro. In Montenegro, there are strong and sincere feelings towards the Yugo region.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has been stable throughout its history as long as it was in a sort of a Yugo community. I have no doubt that this will be the case in the future as well. Bosnia and Herzegovina is threatened from the earlier-mentioned, but also from some other transversals, which, due to its internal divisions, are not so visible.
Bosnia’s future depends solely on the Yugo region. Otherwise, it will hardly be able to preserve itself. In Bosnia and Herzegovina are visible strong feelings for the Yugo region.
It is less important whether Kosovo is the result of historical processes, or the result of many years of problematic Serbian policy. What is important that Kosovo today is a state-political reality. If this is not accepted, primarily from Serbia, Kosovo could turn into a Balkan tragedy.
In order to prevent possible damage, and preserve the reality, a proper diagnosis should be established, which is that Kosovo is completely compromised by the earlier mentioned, but also from some other transversals. In Kosovo, among the Albanian population (except for the part of intellectuals) there are few emotions towards the Yugo region, but there is plenty of interest.
Strong emotions towards the Yugo region exist among the non-Albanian population. This fact the state policy of Kosovo should accept as a reality, but also as a political opportunity to defuse the situation in Kosovo and for better cooperation with its neighbors. In this direction, mechnisms should be sought to establish reconciliation with the Serbs and Serbia.
It should be clear that today the most powerful mechanisms are those that hold Kosovo and Serbia in the “bound” state, and these mechanisms are held by the mafia. They dominate the whole area of both Serbia and Kosovo. Northern Kosovo is their open ground, and both states (Kosovo and Serbia) are held hostage by this formation.
Their operations are fully integrated into the mafia activities on the above mentioned transversal. This is the strongest indicator that organized crime and corruption are here at the service of geopolitics. The formula of success for the Kosovo authorities may be in the doctrine that implies giving. What does that mean? Being generous and give non-Albanians all that is in line with today’s democratic achievements, except the sovereignty of the state. Different forms of autonomy might be a good solution.
It is of historical importance that some states have been restored, or that new ones have been created in the ex-Yugoslavian region, because the historic aspirations of the people who live in this area have been met.
A historical legacy is a high degree of common culture, sports and customs of the people ex-Yugoslavian region. Familiarity with each other, from living together in over decades, contributes to the rapid establishment of mutual trust.
There is an immense richness in the language of communication, regardless of the name of the language.
There is a huge geographical advantage, yet unique natural area, as as an economic resource, which by all its parameters can be considered as one of the healthiest. The common economic space is of great interest to the creative business based on sound foundations.
National, family and friendly cross-border links are a great force in the development of friendly neighborly relations.
Reconstruction of Yugoslavia, in any form, would be a historical mistake, but formation of a Yugo region within the EU would, in my deep conviction, be the most significant EU project since its inception. After all, the stabilization of the Western Balkans is in her best interest, one which would have historical relevance, and the realization of this project would be far easier than implementation of many other projects in the EU.
Yugo region within the EU, is the best barrier to the re-opening of big nation-state projects in the Balkans. The formation of a joint military brigade of ex-Yugoslavian states and its inclusion in the composition of KFOR in Kosovo, and joint control of the airspace could be inspirational projects.
Let’s do it as quickly as possible, so that the Balkans will never again be either a geopolitical, religious or national story. This proposition will certainly not please members of local and other mafia, the most loyal soldiers of the above-mentioned transversal of organized crime and corruption.
Yugo region can be the basis for the constitution of the Balkan region in the EU.
Some principles of ethics and the spirit of capitalism emphasized by Max Weber, such as persistence, diligence and frugality have been significantly endangered(6). The current experience of globalization is that civilization should be observed through the economy only. This has now become a civilizational problem..
Most states now have huge financial debt. Only a small number of them have favorable financial balance sheets. There is a huge nominal imbalance between the deficit and surplus. Where is that money? The answer is simple – in possession of a small number of owners of that capital.
Instead of a balanced investment in production and consumption, the capital is mostly used for consumption. Money has become the glue and lubricant for all machines. Market competition has been replaced by lobbying, which has become the most dangerous act of corruption. Corporate giants are increasingly engaged in competitive showdowns. These showdowns can produce wars and terrorism.
Social stratification is growing into a mass social frustration of the population of the planet. Mankind is encountered with the surplus of politics, surplus of religion, surplus of armaments, surplus of social frustration, and the surplus of ruthless competition of all kinds. The citizens have difficulty coping with all these surpluses, but the mafia is doing just fine under the circumstances.
The possibility of terrorism should not be viewed merely as a product of globalization; it should be seen partly as a form of response to globalization. Therefore, the etymology of the so-called independent terrorism, which can be exerted in the form of rebellion or accidental guerrilla, should be viewed in that context. Mafia, as an army of organized crime and corruption, can very effectively coordinate them.
Without a complete integration of the Western Balkans in their structures, the EU will be a living being that stands on one leg only. Due to this, it will always be in an unstable condition and in a geopolitical risk.
There is no more doubt that the majority of the countries are highly impoverished, and that capital is in the hands of multinational companies and individuals. Because of this, the space of Yugo region should be viewed through a special prism.
Namely, the emerging countries have inherited from the previous a significant part of the energy resources, agricultural resources, water resources, mineral resources and other raw material resources in state ownership.
This fact may make the Yugo region more resilient to the waves of economic crises, but also more promising for foreign direct investment. Yugo region will be inter-connecting much faster than can be concluded at first glance.
However, it should be noted that some politicians in the Western Balkans, which are in the network of organized crime and corruption, are very trained to noisily advocate Euro-Atlantic integration. At the same time, beneath that story, together with Russian tycoons, they are actively working to take over economic resources of the Western Balkans.
For this, they have developed a very strong intelligence and lobbying network in the U.S. and the EU, which are successfully spreading the story that political integrations should not be rushed, and that it is only important to achieve the standards. While in reality, they are not interested at all to reach those same standards, but are deliberately obstructing the process.
Because of all this, organized crime and corruption are becoming a more dangerous geopolitical tool than the nuclear one. U.S and EU officials should be aware of that.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
GRAHOVAC, Blagoje, retired general of aviation – pilot, born on 6 April 1949 in Nevesinje, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Education: High School, Air Force Academy, Command Staff Academy of the Air Force and Air Defence and School of National Defense.
Pilot profession experience: A total of 33 years of flying, of which 29 years in active military service. Flew on following airplanes: Seagull, Hawk, G-4, Eagle and MiG-21. Flying instructor in these types of aircraft.
Received the Golden Pilot Mark, as the highest award in the flight profession in SFR Yugoslavia.
Military duties: Squadron Commander, Chief of Staff of the Aviation Regiment, Aviation Regiment Commander, Chief of Aviation Support Systems for Air Force in SFR Yugoslavia, Commander of Air Force Military Academy, Commander of the Air Corps, Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Air Force and Air Defense and Deputy Minister of Defense in FR Yugoslavia.
Winner of: “Decembar Award” for commanding and leadersip, as the highest national awards in SFR Yugoslavia in this area.
Served in Zadar (Croatia), Titograd (Montenegro), Belgrade (Serbia) and Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina).
Two extraordinary promotions to a higher rank, honoured seven times by a medal. Suspended from duty for a period of two years due to opposition to the current government policy, and for the same reason his military service was permanently termionated in 1999.
Since 1999, served as Counselor of the President of the Republic of Montenegro, Adviser to the President of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, Adviser to the President of the Parliament.
Visiting lecturer at several universities, subject “Geopolitics” and member of the Advisory Board of IFIMES International Institute.
Regular columnist of the independent daily “Vijesti” and several well known regional journals in the field of geopolitics.
Published two books entitled “Dangerous Things” and “Face the nation”.
States, like most people, are becoming poorer and all the more indebted. Mankind is confronted with the surpluses of politics, religion, armaments, social frustration and ruthless competition of all kinds. Citizens and their national policies are finding it difficult to cope with all these surpluses, but mafia is coping with them just fine.
In order to prevent possible cataclysmic events, it is necessary to redefine as soon as possible the policies of the integration processes, as is offered in the text. Accordingly, it is necessary to redefine the theories and policies of capitalism which has become state-criminal, vulgar, brutal and unsustainable.
Western Balkan je u dugom trajanju uzročnik mnogih evropskih problema. Redefinisanjem politike prema ex-jugoslovenskom prostoru treba krenuti putem konstituisanja Yugo regije. Ovaj prostor može prerasti u značajnu šansu za EU.
Western Balkans have for a long time been the cause of many European problems. By redefining the policy towards ex-Yugoslav territory one should move towards the constitution of the Yugo region. This space could be converted into a significant opportunity for the EU. In this area, a significant amount of water resources, energy resources, agricultural and raw material resources are still state owned.
Many politicians in the Western Balkans are in network of organized crime and corruption of the Asian-Balkan-South American transversal. They have developed a very strong intelligence network and are noisily lobbying on behalf of Euro-Atlantic integration, while obstructing the same very skillfully.
Their goal is to perform, jointly with Russian tycoons, a classical occupation of economic resources in the region. The U.S. and the EU administrations, are either slowly or insufficiently noticing this. That is the greatest threat to national interests of local countries, the EU and the USA.
Ljubljana, July 12, 2012
(1) Published in scientific journal »EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES«, april 2012, Volume 4, Number 1 (6) pages 79-94.
(2) John Ralston Saul „Collapse of Globalism and Reinvention of the World“
(3) John Ralston Saul „Collapse of Globalism and Reinvention of the World“
(4) Statement of the UN General Sekretary, 31 October 2011
(5) Prof. dr. Milenko Popović „Economic growth of Montenegro – analisis, dijagnosis, alternatives“ Daily Press – Podgorica 2010
(6) Max Weber „Gesammelte Aufsatze zur Religionssoziologie“
The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. General Blagoje Grahovac, member of the Advisory Board of the IFIMES International Institute, has analysed geopolitics and the relationship of powers in the triangle of democracy-resources-organised crime and corruption. His article entitled “GEOPOLITICS & ORGANIZED CRIME AND CORRUPTION IN THE EARLY 21st CENTURY WITH REFERENCE TO THE BALKANS(1) ” is here published in its entirety.