In Astonishing Israeli Attack on Iran, I tried to convince that an Israeli attack on the Iranian leadership is more probable that one on the highly decentralized Iranian nuclear industry. Can we find supporting evidence of Israeli preparations? How would such an event look?
Truthful Lies: Decoys
In order to prove preparations, the easiest approach would be to show there is a distraction event taking place. The media is full of descriptions of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) preparations, including exercises with Europeans and American forces. I have no doubt these reports, like the ones showing Israeli forces in Georgia, are at least partially correct. Iranians are probably watching, and Israel wants them to see the Israeli planes and boats in Georgia. Israel wouldn’t be massively leaking these reports and pictures otherwise. All these are trademarks of a good decoy.
To reinforce the decoy, the IDF would probably decrease the activity of its forces, especially of costly flights, as if it was trying to balance its budget towards the imminent air attack on Iran. A trademark of the Worldwide War Nations – America, Israel and allies – is their obsession with “war financing.” They are fonder of well balanced accounting books than of goodness; thus watching budget-balancing activities is a good strategy. In parallel, people watching the IDF would probably note an analogous decrease in troop moves.
A nice touch aimed to fool foreign intelligence services would be to entirely cancel the movement of dummy Jericho missiles. The IAF has a small unit which its task is to travel along the Jordan Valley and other Palestinian territories with dummy-missiles loaded trucks, especially at night, as if they were performing a secret deployment of these weapons. Cancelling this and the performance of related actions would show Israel is trying to downplay the nuclear option. These changes would not be visible to the public, though Israel may announce that it is about to launch several experimental satellites from its IAF Palmachim Base. The last would be a perfect cover-up for the launching of mass destruction weapons loaded on Jericho missiles. After all, the Israeli satellite and missile launching platforms are related.
A huge advantage Israel has in this scenario is that the real preparations would take place in secured bunkers and would not create any significant trails. Yet, there is at least one significant no-trail to look for. If we keep seeing small Israeli forces in Georgia without a substantial amount of support forces, this would be a strong sign this is just bait. A substantial logistic presence in Georgia would demand communications, logistics and weapons units deployed there. It would be so large, that hiding it would be impossible. Even if dressing up the soldiers with fake uniforms and other armies’ tags, the language would disclose these soldiers immediately. Hebrew is the main control method of Israel upon its population, but in this case it would backfire. This type of deployment is a variation on the “vertical bypass” strategy commented upon in The Cross of Bethlehem.
Overall, there would be few trails leading to the nature of the Israeli attack on Iran; this is exactly what Israel wants.
Israeli Bio-Terrorism | Israel is a Terror State
Attacking Iran: Two Options?
Thus, how would the Israeli attack on Iran look? There are two main options. If accepting what was claimed in Astonishing Israeli Attack on Iran, that an Israeli attack on the Iranian leadership is more probable that one on the highly decentralized Iranian nuclear industry, then the most obvious attack would be the wiping out of Tehran with nuclear weapons; several of them, in order to ensure success. Yet, Israel would probably never recover from the subsequent international outrage, especially in the Arab World and nearby countries like Pakistan and India.
The second possible attack would demand more careful planning, and the use of the same ballistic missiles, though loaded with conventional warheads. This attack would be surgical in nature, destroying the decision taking bodies of the Iranian regime. The Islamic Consultative Assembly, the Guardian Council, the Presidency, the Supreme Leader institution, the military headquarters; all must be gone so that no one would be able to block Hormuz or order the bombing of Tel Aviv. Destroying the relevant structures is the easy part. However, there is no way of assuring that all the relevant leaders would be patiently waiting in them for their assassination. Actually, it is almost a statistical certainty that some would survive such an attack.
In a country as large as Iran, we are talking of well above one thousand key figures. The success of the Israeli attack depends on its capability to eliminate every person capable of ordering the launching of a retaliatory Iranian attack on Tel Aviv. A complete decapitation of Iran.
Can such a surgical attack be achieved successfully? It would demand the presence of Israeli-owned death squadrons on the ground. These must be able of moving fast and of accurately targeting an unknown number (up to the totality of the key figures) of targets. This demands an accurately knowledge of where is who at any moment. Can this be achieved? A positive answer to this would demand a force of several thousand assassins and their support teams. Despite rumors of Israeli assassinations in Iran, it is difficult to believe Israel has the necessary number of top-quality assassins in place for the operation described here. Even if the answer were positive, the risk of error would be huge; a zillion details could go wrong. In such a case, Iran would wipe out Tel Aviv withiin minutes.
Thus, even a compromise in the form of “let’s start surgical, move nuclear if it fails,” would not be accepted by the Israeli warlords.
Thus, if Israel adopts this scenario, the nuclear option would probably be its choice as well. America would have found its match to the Hiroshima and Nagasaki massacres. Yet, this would be just the first battle of a fiery war. Hezbollah and Hamas would be the first to react in what would become the first World War of the new millennium.