Unrest might spread to Central Asia

Although all the attention is still drawn to the Middle East and Northern Africa, the arena of the main battle might have already started to move towards Central Asia, with the Far East being its final destination.

Many experts already agree that clashes started in Northern Africa and the Middle East were not the incidents of local scale. These events were global in nature. They somehow can be related to any country, especially in the Eurasian continent. These developments put the question of the new world order on the agenda once again.

It is believed that a platform for the possible slacking of China and Russia may be created in bordering countries of Central Asia – Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan.

According to some experts, the situation in Kazakhstan could be further destabilized. This year some unrest has already taken place.  Unfortunately, their predictions seem to be correct.

Kazakhstan has caught the fever. In Aktau, one of the perspective towns in the country’s South-West reach in oil and gas, oil field workers are on strike since May. Aktobe, one of the major industrialized regions, for a week was under pressure for commandos fought there with radical Islamists. A recent prison riot near Karaganda ended with prisoners’ suicides.

All these events took place within a very short period of time. All of them were united by so-called “Islamic trail.” And this means there could be someone in the “organizing committee” behind the scene.

Unfortunately for Kazakhstan, it has one more feature that can spur the possible unrest.

The power in the country rests in the hands of one person, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has served as President of Kazakhstan since the nation received its independence in 1991. That could make him a possible candidate for the next “dictator.”

Nursultan Nazarbayev

However, Kazakhstan has its own unique features that can become advantages in the given situation.

The rapid change of power in this vast country is probably not going to happen.

Large distances between Kazakh regions will not allow the opposition to quickly gather people from all over the country together at one point. And the population of the country’s capital Astana is quite satisfied with their living conditions and is unlikely to take part in possible protests.

Another location, Ferghana Valley, a region in Central Asia spreading across eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, is under close observation now. It is considered by many experts as a candidate place for riots to break out as it is a key to the whole Central Asia.

The U.S. want to implement the project called “Greater Middle East” and the “Greater Central Asia” (the union of Central Asian republics and Afghanistan under the U.S. control and without the participation of Russia and China) using the method of “controlled chaos.” However, this “control chaos” could be easily transformed into uncontrollable disaster. It seems that neither American nor British, and Israeli spin doctors, possibly involved in these events, do not know and do not understand the underlying processes taking place in all the countries of the region. They seem not to be fully aware of the genie they are letting out of the bottle.

Anna Varfolomeeva is an editor of M4.cn and the Russian language project lead producer. She can be reached at annav@m4.com.cn

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