Iran, US: Weighing options for dialogue, war

Modern wars are far not the same with the wars held prior in history. Nowadays wars are only stages in the process of regions’ reconstruction. This is the main feature of modern wars, often headed by the U.S.

Iran and the U.S.

As Yuri Shevtsov noted in his article, The US against Iran, published by  the Agency of Political News, a war these days is not so much about a military operation to resist the forces of the enemy. The main goal of modern wars is a profound social, cultural, political reconstruction of entire regions. This restructuring often begins long before spectacular military actions that could seem to be the most important part. Military actions itself, for example the defeat of Yugoslavia, or the wars with Taliban and Iraq, are just a stage in the process of region’s restructuring.

The military action is always followed by a long period of low-intensity political conflict in the occupied territories. The victory is secured by integration of the modified region into the sphere of Western influence.
Yugoslavia could be a perfect example. NATO strikes on Yugoslavia were preceded by its long siege from all sides, strengthening of all the separatist forces within it, and forming pro-American forces within Yugoslavia, as well as balancing the interests of the United States and its allies in the region. After the military defeat of Yugoslavia, the country fell apart and then came under sustainable management of the West after a long period of internal crisis. At the same time, the operation did not require direct occupation of the country and the region by  U.S. troops. Roughly the same situation was developed in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In this sense, the occupation of Iran has already begun, and the war against Iran could already be underway, although it is not visibly seen.

In July 2010, the former CIA director Michael Hayden said that the chances of the war with Iran were increasing, and a military strike against it was rated as “not the worst option.”

Western analysts believe that Iran could build its own nuclear bomb between 2011-2012. And it doesn’t matter whether it really corresponds with reality or not. What really matters is that the West is convinced in it.

At the same time, the West suffers from a kind of “irano-phobia”, since the Iranian religious leadership differs greatly from the one of Israel or the U.S. It’s like a different world. Therefore, the mere idea of the possibility of obtaining a nuclear bomb terrifies the U.S. and Israel. Hence, they could be willing to take some precautions.

Moreover, the popularity of the Obama’s administration is dwindling, and it will be not that easy to restore it. Unfortunately, it seems only a powerful military strike against Iran could regain the dwindling popularity. An attack on Iran could be a tremendous mistake from all, but with the count down to 2012 presidential election – and with democrats seeking re-election, anything could be possible.

In fact, nobody, but President Ahmadinejad himself and the military personnel of the country  knows what is really going on with Iran’s nuclear program. Everything else could be a part of U.S. intelligence’s speculations, which the world tends to believe.

Even if we assume that Iran  is in the process of developing atomic weapons, why don’t we care that Israel, which is located in the same region, has it? If there is some kind of international law, it should be applied equally to all countries.

Pakistan and India could be an example of surprisingly positive effect of the nuclear weapons acquisition. The countries, which were on the brink of war, stopped their confrontation at the exact moment when both of them acquired nuclear weapons. It was simply too dangerous to continue to fight.

However, it also seems unlikely that the U.S. is going to start military actions in the near future. The country is still preoccupied in Iraq and Afghanistan. The economy is still in crisis and there are many internal problems to be solved first.

At the same time, the economic sanctions against Iran turned out to be somewhat successful. Iranian President reaffirmed Iran’s readiness to pursue dialogue and cooperation with the West to solve the nuclear standoff. There are fewer excuses these days to start an intervention.

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